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課程名稱 |
總體經濟理論
Macroeconomic Theory |
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開課學期 |
111-2 |
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授課對象 |
生物資源暨農學院 農業經濟學研究所 |
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授課教師 |
石曜合 |
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課號 |
AGEC7022 |
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課程識別碼 |
627EM1670 |
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班次 |
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學分 |
3.0 |
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全/半年 |
半年 |
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必/選修 |
必修 |
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上課時間 |
星期一2,3,4,5(9:10~13:10) |
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上課地點 |
農經會議室 |
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備註 |
本課程以英語授課。第5節為實習課
總人數上限：30人 |
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課程簡介影片 |
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核心能力關聯 |
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖 |
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課程大綱
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為確保您我的權利,請尊重智慧財產權及不得非法影印
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課程概述 |
This course is designed for master students in the field of applied microeconomics with a solid understanding of econometrics and causal inferences. The goal of this course is to showcase how causal inferences can be used to answer some of the most important macroeconomic questions and how macroeconomic theories align with empirical evidence. Throughout the course, we will look at modern evidence on the “effects” of important macroeconomic policy instruments—environmental regulations, minimum wage, unemployment insurances, immigration restrictions, trade barriers, fiscal stimulus, and monetary policy—on outcomes such as employment, inequality, national income, and citizens’ physical well-beings. Toward the end of the course, we will also explore how economists answer some of the “questions of life.”
While walking through the modern empirical literature, the course will spend significant amount of time on practical implementations. Students who are not familiar with (introductory) econometrics or causal inferences and their implementations using Stata (or R) are asked to prepare themselves by reviewing the associated materials. Student are welcomed to consult the instructor for advice.
The class starts at 9:30 with three 40-minute lecture sessions (9:30 - 10:10, 10:20 - 11:00, and 11:10 - 11:50). Lab sessions (12:10 - 13:10) will run occasionally to cover supplementary materials. |
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課程目標 |
As a sequel of applied econometrics (required for students in the AGEC master program), the ultimate objective of this course is again to prepare the students for their thesis projects. By showcasing the modern empirical evidence on some long-standing questions in macroeconomics, students are expected to understand how imperfect (or even wrong) the theories that we have learned in undergrad macro are. By completing the course, students are expected to: (1) appreciate how causal inferences methods can be used in the context of macroeconomics, (2) hone the skill of reading empirical research papers, (3) gain experiences of practical implementation of empirical projects, and (4) understand how little we know about economics and how things work in real life. |
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課程要求 |
(1) Term Project or Paper Review (70%): students in a group of two to four persons are required to conduct an empirical project or lead the review of an empirical paper. Students in the same group will receive the same grade.
The empirical project must have a clearly defined causal question and leverage one or more identification strategies introduced in the course or applied econometrics. The project should cover at least the following components: (1) motivation and research question, (2) data, (3) empirical strategy, (4) results and findings, and (5) limitations and suggestions for future work.
The projects shall be submitted either through an oral presentation or a term paper. If submitting through an oral presentation, students are asked to present their work in class and no written essay is required. If submitting through a term paper, students will submit their paper in written form as if it is a manuscript for academic journals. Students are encouraged to seek instructor's advice throughout the semester. The mixtape session on Doing Applied Research might be helpful for some.
For paper review, the reviewed paper should be (1) one of the papers in the designated reading list or (2) relevant to macroeconomics and published at leading economic journals such as QJE, AER, JPE, ReStud, REStat, AEJ: Applied, AEJ: Economic Policy, AEJ: Macro, JEEA, EJ, JAERE, JEEM, AJAE, JLE, JHR, JHE, JDE, JPubE, and JUE. If students would like to review a paper on other topics or not on the journal list above, please consult the instructor for consent. Students can also review a paper on the designated reading list.
For students who will do a paper review, please declare their selection under the discussion thread on COOL before March 6th. First come first serve. The date of presentation will be allocated in accordance with the course schedule. Note that we might not cover all pre-assigned topics to accommodate students' choices and that the number of presentations per week is capped at 2.
The students are expected to present the selected paper "as if they were the authors." Therefore, in addition to presenting the paper's substance, they should also be able to answer questions from the floor. How the presenters handle the questions will be an important part of the evaluation. The presentations can be in a "conference form" that runs about 20 - 30 minutes, a "seminar form" that runs about an hour, or anything in between.
Example of a conference form presentation: An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"
Example of a seminar form presentation: Is the Phillips Curve Getting Flatter? (the presentation starts from 8:40)
(2) In-class discussion (30%): students are REQUIRED to actively participate in the paper review sessions and term project presentations. Some of the most common ways to engage are asking questions about the content of the papers or potential directions for future extensions. In case the presenters made mistakes or were unclear, clarifying questions or comments are also great ways for contributing to the presentations. Students without any active participation in those sessions will get a zero for this part. Therefore, student will almost certainly fail the course if only sitting in class for the entire semester. A sufficiently insightful question or comment will be enough for getting a passing grade for this part (i.e., 21%). The goal of this requirement is to encourage students to read papers carefully. Very often, the better a student understands a paper, the more insightful her/his questions or comments will be. |
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預期每週課後學習時數 |
0 - 2 hours for those who have better outside opportunities and 3 - 9 hours for those who do not. |
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Office Hours |
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指定閱讀 |
!: maybe more challenging
Instrumental variable: On environmental quality and health
* Deryugina, T., Heutel, G., Miller, N. H., Molitor, D., & Reif, J. (2019). The mortality and medical costs of air pollution: Evidence from changes in wind direction. American Economic Review, 109(12), 4178-4219.
Instrumental variable: On international trade and local labor market
* David, H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013). The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121-68.
Instrumental variable: On lottery design
Le Barbanchon, T., Ubfal, D., & Araya, F. (2023). The Effects of Working while in School: Evidence from Employment Lotteries. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 15(1), 383-410.
Labor market: Does minimum wage depress employment?
* Cengiz, D., Dube, A., Lindner, A., & Zipperer, B. (2019). The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1405-1454.
* Dustmann, C., Lindner, A., Schönberg, U., Umkehrer, M., & Vom Berge, P. (2022). Reallocation effects of the minimum wage. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(1), 267-328.
* Engbom, Niklas, and Christian Moser. 2022. "Earnings inequality and the minimum wage: Evidence from Brazil." American Economic Review, 112 (12): 3803-47.
Labor Market: Should we welcome immigrants?
* Alesina, A., Miano, A., & Stantcheva, S. (2023). Immigration and redistribution. The Review of Economic Studies, 90(1), 1–39,
* Beerli, A., Ruffner, J., Siegenthaler, M., & Peri, G. (2021). The abolition of immigration restrictions and the performance of firms and workers: evidence from Switzerland. American Economic Review, 111(3), 976-1012.
* Dustmann, C., Schönberg, U., & Stuhler, J. (2017). Labor supply shocks, native wages, and the adjustment of local employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(1), 435-483.
Labor Market: Does unemployment insurance disincentivize job search?
! Gerard, F., & Naritomi, J. (2021). Job displacement insurance and (the lack of) consumption-smoothing. American Economic Review, 111(3), 899-942.
* Lusher, L., Schnorr, G. C., & Taylor, R. L. (2022). Unemployment insurance as a worker indiscipline device? Evidence from scanner data. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14(2), 285-319.
* Marinescu, I., & Skandalis, D. (2021). Unemployment insurance and job search behavior. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136(2), 887-931.
Identification in Macroeconomics
* Nakamura, E., & Steinsson, J. (2018). Identification in macroeconomics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(3), 59-86.
Monetary policy: What do we really know?
* Bauer, M. D., & Swanson, E. T. (2023). An alternative explanation for the “fed information effect”. American Economic Review, 113(3), 664-700.
* Gorodnichenko, Y., Pham, T., & Talavera, O. (2023). The voice of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 113(2), 548-584.
* Nakamura, E., & Steinsson, J. (2018). High-frequency identification of monetary non-neutrality: the information effect. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(3), 1283-1330.
Fiscal policy: Does fiscal stimulus work?
* Acconcia, A., Corsetti, G., & Simonelli, S. (2014). Mafia and public spending: Evidence on the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment. American Economic Review, 104(7), 2185-2209.
* Chodorow-Reich, G. (2019). Geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multipliers: What have we learned? American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(2), 1-34.
! Dupor, B., Karabarbounis, M., Kudlyak, M., & Mehkari, M. (Forthcoming). Regional consumption responses and the aggregate fiscal multiplier. Review of Economic Studies.
* Hazell, J., Herreno, J., Nakamura, E., & Steinsson, J. (2022). The slope of the Phillips Curve: evidence from US states. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(3), 1299-1344.
* Jappelli, T., & Pistaferri, L. (2014). Fiscal policy and MPC heterogeneity. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6(4), 107-136.
* Mian, A., & Sufi, A. (2012). The effects of fiscal stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 cash for clunkers program. The Quarterly journal of economics, 127(3), 1107-1142.
! Nakamura, E., & Steinsson, J. (2014). Fiscal stimulus in a monetary union: Evidence from US regions. American Economic Review, 104(3), 753-92.
* Ramey, V. A. (2019). Ten years after the financial crisis: What have we learned from the renaissance in fiscal research? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 89-114.
Inequality and intergenerational mobility
* Gethin, A., Martínez-Toledano, C., & Piketty, T. (2022). Brahmin left versus merchant right: Changing political cleavages in 21 western democracies, 1948–2020. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(1), 1-48.
* Hoy, C., & Mager, F. (2021). Why are relatively poor people not more supportive of redistribution? Evidence from a randomized survey experiment across ten countries. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 13(4), 299-328.
! Kaplan, G., Moll, B., & Violante, G. L. (2018). Monetary policy according to HANK. American Economic Review, 108(3), 697-743.
* Chetty, R., Hendren, N., Kline, P., & Saez, E. (2014). Where is the land of opportunity? The geography of intergenerational mobility in the United States. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(4), 1553-1623.
* Chetty, R., & Hendren, N. (2018). The impacts of neighborhoods on intergenerational mobility I: Childhood exposure effects. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(3), 1107-1162.
* Chetty, R., & Hendren, N. (2018). The impacts of neighborhoods on intergenerational mobility II: County-level estimates. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(3), 1163-1228.
Miscellaneous: How can economics help us live happier?
* Cullen, Z., & Perez-Truglia, R. (2022). How much does your boss make? the effects of salary comparisons. Journal of Political Economy, 130(3), 766-822.
* DellaVigna, S., List, J. A., Malmendier, U., & Rao, G. (2022). Estimating social preferences and gift exchange at work. American Economic Review, 112(3), 1038-74.
* Levitt, S. D. (2021). Heads or tails: The impact of a coin toss on major life decisions and subsequent happiness. The Review of Economic Studies, 88(1), 378-405.
* Li, C. H., & Zafar, B. (forthcoming) Ask and you shall receive? Gender differences in regrades in college. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.
* Perez-Truglia, R. (2020). The effects of income transparency on well-being: Evidence from a natural experiment. American Economic Review, 110(4), 1019-54 |
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參考書目 |
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評量方式
(僅供參考) |
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